Can the Buffalo Bills take the next step in 2026?
The Buffalo Bills are 83-33 since the beginning of the 2019 season. They have won five of the past seven AFC East division titles, have made two Conference Championship games and quarterback Josh Allen is a Most Valuable Player (MVP) winner.
However, one thing has eluded them, the Super Bowl.
The Bills famously lost four straight Super Bowls in the 1990’s and have failed to return to the big game since.
Fast forward to the 2025 season, and the Bills suffered another heartbreaking playoff defeat, a theme of the franchise’s history and in the Allen era in Buffalo.
A 33-30 overtime defeat to the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round after a Will Lutz field goal. Head coach Sean McDermott was fired following the loss. With the Patriots beating a backup QB in the Conference Championship and putting in a damp squid performance in Super Bowl LX, there will be an element of “What if” for the Bills fanbase and organisation.
Joe Brady was promoted from offensive coordinator to head coach, but can he guide the Bills to the one final step McDermott couldn’t in 2026?
Overcoming the Chiefs stranglehold
Just as the Bills did against NFC East teams in 90’s Super Bowls, they have had issues getting past the Kansas City Chiefs and their quarterback Patrick Mahomes this decade.
From the 2020 season, the Bills have been eliminated by the Chiefs four times, despite no team having beaten Patrick Mahomes more times. Their record against Kansas City in the regular season is 5-1, but 0-4 in the postseason, a beyond frustrating stat for the organisation.
Every offseason, the two teams are expected to play each other in the playoffs and it is often seen that if you beat the Chiefs in the postseason, you will make the Super Bowl. In the 2025 season, this scenario never came to fruition as the Chiefs won just six games. The defending AFC Champions were way off their usual standard. Therefore, this gave the rest of the conference an opportunity that they have not had in years, a postseason run without having to take on Andy Reid’s team.
The Bills would have felt more than any other team, that this was their chance to finally make a Super Bowl in the Josh Allen era.
However, that aforementioned loss to the Broncos put an end to their hopes of a spot in Super Bowl LX.
Next season, with an easier schedule than usual, the Chiefs could very easily be back in contention for the AFC. There are holes in the roster and there are question marks over Mahomes’ health status and whether he can return the same player.
A lot of people are expecting this team to be in transition, but if Mahomes is fully healthy, then this Chiefs team should never be doubted even if they struggled in 2025.
A Weaker Conference
If the Chiefs do struggle again in 2026, then this is a conference that is considerably weaker than the NFC. The Broncos also have a similar question mark around their quarterback and it is hard to see the Patriots repeating their success of last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers have all the talent and coaching staff to go far but never seem to be able to get it all together. There are too many question marks at offensive line and defense for the Cincinnati Bengals, despite an electric offense.
It remains to be seen whether the Jacksonville Jaguars can kick on from an impressive 2025 and the limitations of quarterback CJ Stroud, that was evident in the postseason, could be the Achilles heel of a Texans team that is excellent on defense and has a brilliant head coach in DeMeco Ryans.
There is only one other team in 2026, besides the Chiefs, that present a real danger to the Bills’ hopes of a Super Bowl berth and this is the Baltimore Ravens.
Like the Bills, the Ravens have also had their issues in the postseason. Despite multiple MVP’s, quarterback Lamar Jackson has also failed to make the Super Bowl despite excellence on the field.
The Ravens’ biggest issue has been on defense and like the Bills, they have a new head coach.
Jesse Minter comes in to replace long time head coach John Harbaugh, who helped them win a Super Bowl in the 2012 season. His experience on the defensive side of the ball could prove to be a defining factor.
Whilst both the Bills and Ravens have hired new head coaches, Minter’s arrival could have more of an impact.
With Brady replacing McDermott, they are replacing a defensive mind with an offensive mind, but with the defense still being an issue. However, Minter is a defensive mind replacing a defensive mind. With new ideas, this could help the defense improve, one that has struggled since Mike McDonald left as defensive coordinator to become the Seattle Seahawks head coach.
Sometimes a fresh voice can be exactly what a team needs, and this could be what helps the Bills get over the edge in 2026.