Fantasy Football Fades: Don't Let These Guys Cost You Your League
While some players are primed to outperform their ADP, others are ticking time bombs waiting to explode, in a bad way. It's easy to get caught up in the hype of a big name player, but a deeper look at the data and their situations can reveal some serious red flags.
Let's be clear, this article isn't a "do not draft" list. It's simply that their current draft cost is too high. At their current Sleeper ADP, there are other players available who offer a much higher ceiling and are more likely to outperform their draft position.
QB: Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)
The Case: Kyler Murray has been fantasy football relevant in the past, but his ADP this year blows my mind. Last season was the worst of his career on a points per game basis, and while he was coming off an injury, the signs were there that his high end fantasy days are in the rear view mirror. A big concern, the Cardinals' offense did very little to improve this offseason. Murray's value has always been tied to his rushing ability of which I still think is a myth as his scrambling yards aren't actually that impressive, but he's entering his seventh season, and those rushing yards and touchdowns are naturally going to decline. Furthermore, his passing numbers have been trending downwards. He finished last year with a career low in yards per attempt, and a good portion of his fantasy production came from an unsustainable touchdown rate. Drafting him as a top-10 QB assumes a return to form that simply isn't a given.
Sleeper ADP: QB9
Realistic Finish Range: QB14-18
Discount option with higher ceiling: Dak Prescott (RB11)
RB: De'Von Achane (Miami Dolphins)
The Case: De'Von Achane's rookie season was impressive. He was incredibly efficient with a ridiculous yards per carry average, and every time he touched the ball, it felt like he was going to get in the end zone. The problem is, that level of efficiency is nearly impossible to sustain. Last season, he missed five games, which should be a bit of a concern given his slight frame. The Dolphins' backfield is crowded, and they have Jaylen Wright and Ollie Gordon fighting it out for more touches. Achane's volume was never elite, and with his injury risk and the looming threat of an RBBC approach in Miami, it's hard to justify his ADP. There's a big chance of significant regression.
Sleeper ADP: RB7
Realistic Finish Range: RB15-25
Discount option with higher ceiling: Chase Brown (RB12)
WR: Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals)
The Case: This is the most painful one on the list, as I am a huge fan of Tee Higgins. However, I have several concerns, a big concern is Higgins' history of injuries, and now he is firmly entrenched as the number 2 receiver behind Ja'Marr Chase. While he has shown he can put up WR1 numbers, the targets will always be capped with Chase on the field. Higgins' current ADP is pricing him as a WR1 and I just don't see a return on investment at this price, also his production over the last two years has been closer to a low-end WR2. With the uncertainty surrounding his long-term contract and potential for a trade next year, it's a messy situation that could lead to a disappointing fantasy season. You're better off drafting a WR with a clear path to targets in the range, or even a tier later.
Sleeper ADP: WR14
Realistic Finish Range: WR20-30
Discount option with higher ceiling: Courtland Sutton (WR22)
TE: Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals)
The Case: My take on Trey McBride is a bit cautious. While his performance in 2024 was undeniably impressive, and he showed he has the talent to be an elite tight end, my main concern isn't with him as a player. It's the overall situation in Arizona with a low scoring offense and Kyler Murray as his QB, the low touchdown production is a significant red flag. Furthermore, this year, Marvin Harrison Jr. will command a much higher target share. I just don't see how McBride finishes the year as the overall TE2. That being said, my stance changes if his ADP slides. However, at his current price, I'd prefer to wait and draft George Kittle a round or two later. Kittle operates in a more explosive offense and I believe he to outscore McBride this season.
Sleeper ADP: TE2
Realistic Finish Range: TE6-10
Discount option with higher ceiling: George Kittle (TE3)
Luke Renton