The emotions we football fans feel riding the out-of-control roller coaster that is an NFL season are hard to encapsulate in words alone. Things that were accepted as inarguable truths in week 3 are often distant memories if not completely forgotten by week 12. Teams that were 1-4 with their fanbases talking about draft picks and who their next head coach will be go on 8-2 runs and suddenly find themselves talking home playoff games. It can go the other way too, where a team that comes flying out of the starting gate goes completely sideways mid-season and drops out of contention by their late-season bye week. Every season seems to come together in the end as the culmination of multiple mini-seasons mashed into one.

The 2023 season was no different. Some things we thought we knew were reinforced, like “Lamar Jackson is really good at football,” and “that whole Patrick Mahomes / Andy Reid / Travis Kelce thing seems to be working.” Others, such as “Bryce Young is the next big thing,” and “Brock Purdy was just a flash in the pan” were debunked. Some teams started off hot and faded into utter oblivion (looking at you, Philadelphia), while others rode late-season winning streaks all the way to the playoffs, erasing early season slumps (well done, Green Bay). After months of buildup and hoopla, Aaron Rodgers in New York lasted five minutes. Puka Nacua became a thing. Someone resurrected Baker Mayfield while no one was looking. Start to finish, 2023 delivered, like all NFL seasons have their own way of doing.

Finding a way to wrap all this organized chaos into a nice neat summation can be challenging, but this humble writer is going to give it a try.

Welcome to NFL 3-2-1. This is my attempt to summarize each team’s 2023 season and take a quick glance toward 2024. For each team, I provide a three-sentence overview of their 2023 season, two sentences on how I think they got there and/or challenges they face, and one sentence suggesting what they can do about it, or at least where they can start. 16 teams in this “Part One.” 16 teams in the still-to-come “Part Two.”

I must put these parameters on myself, you see, as my propensity for long-windedness is well documented among those that know me best.

Full disclosure, I wear my vocabulary like a badge of honor, and I reserve the right to defend my run-on sentences and/or comma splices.

Speaking of long-winded, right??

Off we go!

The Panthers sold the proverbial farm to the Chicago Bears for the right to select Bryce Young with the first overall pick in the 2023 Draft, and proceeded to parlay that into the league’s worst record in 2023 with an offense that ranked dead last. Young struggled mightily while fellow first-round QB C.J. Stroud led the Houston Texans to a division title, and the team’s lack of offensive explosiveness was impossible to ignore. The free agent signings of Miles Sanders and Adam Thielen were duds, and Carolina quarterbacks were pulverized to the tune of 65 sacks.

The Panthers don’t even reap the lone benefit of finishing with the league’s worst record, as their 2024 first round pick also went to the Bears in the Young trade. New head coach Dave Canales has but six draft picks to fix an offense that was as anemic as they come in 2024.

The defense was decent enough, but this team needs an offensive playmaker to pair with Young, and it will be tough to find one at pick 33.

The Commanders had a bizarre year in that they entered the season with an exciting young quarterback and a star-studded defense that seemed to be on the rise. After starting 2-0, Washington lost 13 of it’s last 15 games, including 8 in a row to close out the season, a level of disfunction that cost head coach Ron Rivera his job. The Commanders traded two of their star defenders, Montez Sweat and Chase Young mid-season for draft picks, moves that all but sealed their fate for 2023, and QB Sam Howell seemed to regress with every passing week.

How the new coaching staff feels about Howell going forward will go a long way in determining how Washington will use its plethora of 2024 draft picks. There’s some intrigue among their offensive starters, but the defense has major holes to fill from top to bottom.

Between 5 top-100 draft picks and an NFL high $83 million in salary cap space (*), the new regime in Washington will have an immediate opportunity to right the Commanders’ ship.

New England’s offense was impossibly bad in 2023, and it led to the end of Bill Belichick’s incredible 24-year run as the Patriots’ head coach, a reign that included nine Super Bowl appearances and six titles. Mac Jones has been an abject disaster as a starting QB and between him and Bailey Zappe, the Patriots weekly starting QB carrousel became almost comical by the end of the season. RB Rhamondre Stevenson is a workhorse, but a solid defense tired by the end of the season thanks to an offense that ranked 31st in the league in average time of possession.

For all the well-earned praise for his coaching genius, Belichick’s personnel moves have repeatedly left league pundits scratching their heads, and it has left a largely empty cupboard for new head coach Jerod Mayo to restock. The needs run deep on both sides of the ball.

Mayo’s first major decision will be what to do at QB, and he may well use the 3rd overall pick in the 2024 draft to address it.

In a season that saw them lose 13 games, the Cardinals mixed in victories against three (almost four) playoff teams, three of which came after QB Kyler Murray returned in week 10 after a late 2022 ACL injury, including road wins at Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. TE Trey McBride looks like a budding superstar, but an inconsistent and frequently injury-riddled WR room limited this offense, despite steady-if-not-electric production from RB James Connor. Add in a middling defense that generated only 33 sacks and 17 turnovers, and it is clear there are issues to address.

This team will go as Murray goes; his contract limits both the team’s ability to move him or put high-end free agents around him. Second-year coach Jonathan Gannon seems to “have the room” with this group, and he has a fair amount of cap space and (currently) 11 draft picks, including two first-rounders and six in the top three rounds, with which to work.

Arizona needs defense across the board, but taking the top offensive playmaker in the draft at 4 would not be a bad strategy.

The Chargers took the ultimate leap of NFL-related faith in hiring head coach Jim Harbaugh fresh off his national title at Michigan. This team has offensive firepower all over the field led by QB Justin Herbert, but their defense, specifically on the back end is a mess, and their salary cap situation will present some difficult decisions for this new coaching staff in the coming offseason. The Chargers are better than their 5-12 record from 2023 would indicate, and Harbaugh could well be the perfect coach for this “fix it on the fly” job.

Harbaugh brings an undeniable track record (and an inevitable media circus) with him to L.A., and he will be tasked with maximizing a team that has made a recent history out of underachieving. The roster decisions will be key, and who they are and are not able keep will likely dictate where Harbaugh and the Chargers go with the 5th overall pick.

Harbaugh feels like the right coach at the right time for the right team; I am intrigued.

The Giants made one of the most (in this writer’s opinion) questionable decisions of the 2023 offseason when they signed QB Daniel Jones to a 4-year, $160 million contract extension, a move that surprised many around the league, irritated star RB Saquon Barkley (who received only a 1-year deal and is a pending free agent once again), and limited the Giants’ ability to add pieces to a roster largely lacking in high-end star power. While the “biggest” QB contract is often the “next” QB contract, whether Jones was the right QB to make that kind of commitment to was at the very least up for debate. Though he was coming off his best season in 2022, Jones struggled mightily out of the gate in 2023 behind a porous offensive line, suffered a neck injury week 5 against the Miami Dolphins, and suffered a season-ending torn ACL three weeks later.

The Giants ranked toward the bottom of the NFL in a litany of categories in 2023, from total offense and total defense to sacks, 3rd down efficiency and red zone offense. Their salary cap situation is middle-of-the-road, and several key players are potential free agents, making this a particularly difficult situation to navigate.

If the Giants are sold on Jones as their franchise QB, they need to strengthen this team from the inside out and target a top OL or pass rusher; if not, they may have a full-on rebuild on their hands.

After somewhat surprisingly moving on from longtime head coach Mike Vrabel, the Titans seem to be embarking on an era of uncertainty. RB Derrick Henry, who has been so good for so long as the driving force of this offense year in and year out, will be 30 next season and is unlikely to return to Tennessee. Even with Henry, the Titans offense ranked near the bottom of the league in 2023, and whether Will Levis is the future of this team at QB remains an open question.

The defense, a strength throughout the Vrabel era, also took a step back in 2023, finishing in the middle of the pack overall, but generating a league-low six interceptions and 14 total turnovers, good for 31st. An aging DeAndre Hopkins was the only wide receiver to average over 30 yards per game, adding further consternation to an already suspect offense.

New head coach, 39-year-old Brian Callahan, has his hands full with a team that is in flux on almost every front, but having the second most available cap space to start the offseason should help.

Few head coaches have been more criticized in recent years for underutilizing their offensive weapons than the recently departed Arthur Smith. The Falcons used high draft picks on QB Desmond Ridder, RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts over the past three seasons, and proceeded to forget any or all of them existed at times. Robinson garnered 20+ carries all of one time his rookie season, London and Pitts have each gone multiple games with zero catches over the past two years, and Ridder was started and benched more times this season than anyone not named Mac Jones.

Despite the perplexing offensive strategy that eventually cost Smith his job, the Falcons remained in the playoff hunt deep into the season in a weak NFC South division thanks to a solid defense that kept games close (save for blowout losses the final two weeks), but had difficulty generating big plays, ranking near the bottom of the league in both sacks and turnovers.

Raheem Morris takes over for Smith with a fair number of tools in the proverbial shed compared to some other coaches taking over new teams, and if he can decide what to do at QB and further strengthen this defense with a disruptive pass rusher, the Falcons have a chance to rebound nicely in 2024.

The Bears were at a crossroads heading into the 2023 draft, as they held the number one overall pick with (at the time) a near-consensus number one QB (Bryce Young) at the top of most draft boards. Instead, the Bears dealt that pick to the Carolina Panthers for a king’s ransom that included star WR D.J. Moore and the Panthers first-round pick in 2024, which, after the Panthers struggled their way to a 2-15 record in 2023, landed the Bears with the number one overall pick again in 2024. And once again, they face the same decision: draft the top QB in this year’s draft (arguably USC’s Caleb Williams) or trade out of that pick for another haul of draft picks and/or players and once more put their franchise in the hands of QB Justin Fields.

The Bears finished the season winning 4 of their last 6 games, and Fields seemed to take another step forward after returning from a thumb injury that cost him four-plus games. Moore was a stud, outgaining the next Bears WR by 950 yards, and the defense finished the year strong.

Another franchise-defining move awaits general manager Ryan Poles, and how he decides to handle it (and their almost $50 million in available cap space) will have ramifications for this team, good or bad, for years to come.

The 2023 Jets will be remembered as a case study in “putting all your eggs in one basket,” and then having said basket spontaneously combust. QB Aaron Rodgers’ Achillies injury four plays into their first game derailed the Jets season before it ever got started, and they were never able to recover. QB Zach Wilson was given chance after chance to silence his many critics, but by the end of the season was playing second (or third) fiddle to the likes of QB Tim Boyle and QB Trevor Siemian.

While no team can be expected to absorb the loss of a player as key to their success as Rodgers was to the Jets without missing a beat, the degree to which things fell off the proverbial cliff in New York is hard to defend. The passing game, led by up-and-coming second-year WR Garrett Wilson (1,042 yards, 3 TDs) (**) never got on track, and the running game centered on second-year RB Breece Hall (994 yards, 5 TDs), save for a handful of monster games, suffered as a result.

The Jets have only five picks in the upcoming draft with limited cap flexibility, and if Rodgers doesn’t (or can’t) return in 2024, this team could completely bottom out.

Speaking of Achillies injuries to starting quarterbacks derailing seasons, Minnesota suffered a similar fate to the Jets when they lost QB Kirk Cousins in week 8. The Vikings were already spinning their wheels because of a slew of early season turnovers and a running game that lacked any semblance of pop after moving on from longtime starting RB Dalvin Cook. The team tried to hold things together with a forgettable QB trio of Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall, but none were able to generate any sustained success, and a team that had won 13 games in 2022 plummeted to 7-10, losing 6 of its last 7.

The Vikings have been in varying degrees of salary cap hell for many years, and 2024 will be no different. Superstar WR Justin Jefferson needs an extension, and Cousins along with star DE Danielle Hunter are free agents, potentially leaving the Vikings with major roster deficiencies without a whole lot of salary cap room to deal with them.

The other three teams in the NFC North are all on the rise, and how the Vikings and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah handle a challenging offseason will determine whether they are able to keep pace, or sink to the bottom of their division.

Head coach Sean Payton’s much anticipated return to coaching landed with a thud of epic proportions early on, with an 0-3 start that featured a 70-20 humiliation at Miami in week 3. After that, things got better…and weird. Denver vaulted itself into the playoff race with a five-game winning streak in late October through November, but stumbled to a 2-5 finish from there, resulting in the somewhat curious benching of $242 million starting QB Russell Wilson.

Denver’s struggled on both sides of the ball with an offense that ranked 26th and a defense that ranked 29th. They are in salary cap hell, and Wilson has likely played his last game for the Broncos.

Payton’s reputation preceded him before he arrived in Denver, and he is going to have to harness every shred of coaching acumen he has to keep this team from imploding entirely.

The Raiders had a difficult season to summarize, in that they some impressive wins (63 points against the L.A. Chargers, at Kansas City) muddled in with some head-scratching losses (at Chicago, 3-0 home loss to Minnesota). After head coach Josh McDaniels was fired midseason, Antonio Pierce took over and went 5-4 down the stretch, eventually securing the permanent head coaching job shortly after the season ended. The players love Pierce, and he has full control of the room heading into the offseason.

Pierce made the switch to rookie QB Aidan O’Connell upon taking over the team, benching QB Jimmy Garoppolo and likely signaling a changing of the guard going into 2024. Star WR Davante Adams finished with his 4th consecutive 100-catch season, but also posted his lowest yards-per-catch since 2015 (11.1), his fewest touchdowns since 2019 (5), and will turn 32 next season.

The Raiders have several high-priced WRs, a very expensive now-backup QB, and RB Josh Jacobs is a free agent once again, meaning a busy offseason is in the offing for a team that has some cap flexibility and a fair amount of draft picks

New Orleans scuffed their way to a 5-7 start, but the good news is they closed a strong 4-1 and narrowly missed the playoffs. QB Derek Carr played well enough, throwing for just shy of 4,000 yards and 25 TDs while limiting his turnovers, and is entering the second year of the 4-year $150 million deal he signed with the Saints last offseason. WR Chris Olave looks like a star in the making, amassing over 1,100 receiving yards in just his second NFL season.

Now for the bad news. New Orleans enters the offseason with the oldest roster in the NFL, sit almost $83 million over the salary cap (worst in the league), their stars (WR Michael Thomas, DE Cameron Jordan, RB Alvin Kamara to name just a few) are aging, and they have but five picks in the upcoming draft, with no 3rd or 4th rounders.

In short, the Saints’ situation this offseason is a tinderbox, and it will be all general manager Mickey Loomis and head coach Dennis Allen can do to keep it from igniting.

The Colts made a bold move in 2023, drafting Florida QB Anthony Richardson 4th overall and starting him week 1. His other-worldly athleticism and big play ability were on full display from the get-go, but sadly so was his propensity for injury, as he appeared in just 4 games, finished just two, and ultimately suffered a shoulder injury in week 5 that ended his season. The Colts still managed a 9-8 record thanks to solid backup play from QB Gardner Minshew and a top-10 running game.

First-year head coach Shane Steichen did well managing a team that faced no shortage of early season adversity, from the Richardson injury to the drama surrounding the contract situation of star RB Jonathan Taylor. With Taylor’s contract situation settled and Richardson set to return, the Colts should enter next season on much firmer ground.

With a solid offensive line, all their draft picks and a slew of cap space, the Colts are well-positioned, and can spend this offseason focusing on improving their defense and trying to re-sign WR Michael Pittman, Jr. who led the team in targets, catches, and yards by a long shot.

2023 marked the last of Pete Carroll’s 14-year run as head coach of the Seahawks, a run that included Seattle’s first ever Super Bowl title in 2014 and the “Legion of Boom” defense that had Seattle contending for Super Bowls for most of the 2010’s. The Seahawks struggled to find identity in 2023, as their defense and running game were uncharacteristically average at best, and QB Geno Smith regressed from his stellar 2022 campaign that earned him a 3-year, $75 million deal with the team. WR DK Metcalf was a big play machine, averaging almost 17 yards per catch, but the rest of the receiving group was inconsistent.

Seattle hired defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald away from the Baltimore Ravens to be their next head coach, and he will be tasked with revitalizing a defense that not long ago was recognized as one of the greatest defensive units in recent NFL history. They have seven picks in the upcoming draft, but are already slightly over the cap with several roster positions to fill.

In addition to trying to return this defense to the glory days of yester year, Macdonald will need Smith to recapture his 2022 magic, and get far more out of 2023 20th overall pick WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba than he provided in his rookie year as he slowly takes over for an aging WR Tyler Lockett, who despite playing in all 17 games posted his lowest yardage (894) and touchdown (5) totals since 2017.

J.D Day

(*) - all salary cap information courtesy of www.Spotrac.com (**) - all statistical information courtesy of www.espn.com

NFL 3-2-1 - PART ONE

CHECK OUT OUR SOCIALS DOWN BELOW:

@THEFRANCHISETAGPOD