Rams v Lions – The Matchup We All Wanted
At face value, the week 18 contest between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers didn’t matter too much. The Niners had already locked up the number one seed in the NFC, while the Rams were already assured of their place in the postseason. The line-ups further emphasised the lack of importance of this game with key starters rested and Sam Darnold lining up against Carson Wentz at quarterback. But this game, and backup quarterback Carson Wentz, ended up having a big influence on the make up of the upcoming Super Wildcard Weekend. With the Packers beating the Bears, the Rams needed Wentz’s rushing touchdown five minutes from time, and the following two-point conversion, to secure the number six seed and a mouth-watering trip to Detroit in the first round of the playoffs. Stafford returning to Detroit; Goff facing McVay and the Rams; the team that Les Snead built versus the team that Brad Holmes built. This match-up has it all.
It was back in 2016 that the Rams traded up to select University of California quarterback, Jared Goff first overall. A year later, he was joined in LA by head coach Sean McVay and success was immediate for them, achieving a first playoff appearance since 2004 in their first season together. Things got even better the following year, reaching the Super Bowl after a season of exciting offense that included a thrilling 54-51 regular season victory over Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs. In the big game though, Goff and the Rams offense stalled, putting up just three points against Belichick’s defense, and McVay started to question whether Goff was the man to lead this Rams team to a Super Bowl title. A 60-19 touchdown to interception ratio over those first two successful years regressed to a 42-29 ratio over the next two and in 2021 McVay and the Rams made the decision to move on from him.
It was to Detroit and their quarterback Matthew Stafford that the Rams turned their gaze. Also entering the league via the first overall pick in the draft, Stafford had been with the Lions since 2009 and despite taking the Lions to their first playoff appearance in 12 years in his third season, only two more playoff appearances followed and no postseason victories. Despite this, McVay believed that Stafford was the man who could help the Rams take that final step and they were willing to pay big for him. It ended up costing the Rams two first-round picks, a third-round pick and Goff to bring Stafford to LA but the high cost was immediately worth it with a Super Bowl win in Stafford’s very first season as a Ram.
Meanwhile in Detroit, Goff was assumed to be a placeholder until the Lions could draft their future QB. A 3-13-1 record in Goff’s first season as a Detroit Lion seemed to further back up this theory but a second season with head coach Dan Campbell, where the team recovered from a 1-6 start to win 8 of their last 10 games and achieve a first winning record since 2017, suggested that Goff could possibly be around for longer than expected. The faith in Goff has paid off this year with the Lions finally ending their long wait for a divisional title and setting up a first home playoff tie for thirty years.
As things have turned out, there is no doubt that both teams fared pretty well out of that 2021 blockbuster trade but now the question is which team will come out on top on Sunday night?
Why the Rams Could Win
The Rams are entering the postseason as the most in-form team in the NFL. Since their bye, they have won 7 of their 8 games, with their only defeat coming in an overtime loss to the Baltimore Ravens. After a 3-6 start, when there was talk by some pundits on whether they should trade away their remaining stars and focus on a good draft pick for 2024, the Rams have completely turned around their season.
It’s on offense where the Rams’ most dramatic turnaround has been. Over the last eight games, only three teams in the NFL (the Ravens, Cowboys and Niners) have scored more points than the Rams and a fully fit Matthew Stafford has been playing some of the best football of his career. Only the Dallas Cowboys have thrown more touchdown passes than the Rams over those final eight games and only three teams have a better quarterback rating. Fifth-round pick Puka Nacua has been electric with Stafford throwing to him, breaking the rookie receiving yards record and the rookie receptions record this season, and with 2021 triple crown winner Cooper Kupp also in this passing corps, the Rams’ passing attack has the potential to devastate the Lions. The Lions’ secondary has struggled all season, allowing an average of 247.4 yards a game, the sixth worse in the league, and if they give Stafford the time to throw, the Lions could easily give up a lot of points on Sunday evening. Getting to Stafford to stop him won’t be easy for the Lions’ pass rush either. The Rams’ offensive line has really stepped up this season and only five teams have allowed fewer sacks than them. They will be facing Aidan Hutchinson on Sunday though, who has totalled 11.5 sacks in a breakout second year, so the Rams’ offensive line will have to be at the top of their game.
The offensive line has also been extremely effective in the running game this season and has helped Kyren Williams emerge as a top tier running back. He finished the season with 1144 yards, the third most in the league, despite only playing 12 games over the season. Since coming back from injury in week 12, Williams has gotten even better, averaging 115 yards a game and scoring 6 touchdowns. He has become a vital weapon for the Rams this year, with the team averaging 27 points per game with him and only 16 points per game without. The balance the Rams have managed to get between their passing game and rushing game has made them very difficult to stop and I fully expect them to score plenty of points against Detroit.
The Rams’ defense has also had a resurgence since the bye. Kobie Turner, the league’s rookie sack leader with 9, has formed a formidable defensive line partnership with Aaron Donald that would be a handful for any offensive line in the league. Another rookie, Byron Young, has been highly impressive on the edge, with his 8 sacks putting him behind only Kobie Turner amongst rookies. I fully expect this Rams defense to get after Goff and put him under pressure. Goff is not a quarterback who thrives under pressure so if the Rams manage this, I can see them generating turnovers. This could be the key to the game.
Why the Lions Could Win
If the key to the game is whether the Rams’ pass rush can put Goff under pressure, the fact that the Lions have the second-best offensive line in the league, according to PFF, could possibly tip things in their favour. They allowed the fourth fewest number of sacks this season and in Frank Ragnow they have PFF’s highest ranked center. Penei Sewell is an absolute star at left tackle too, in both pass protection and run blocking. In fact, Sewell’s pass blocking grade for 2023 has only been beaten by one player over the past five years.
The Lions’ offense as a whole has been destructive all season. Fifth in points scored, fifth in rushing yards and second in passing yards, the Rams will have to find a way to slow them down to have a chance on Sunday. In David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the Lions have the most productive rushing duo in the league, the two of them becoming agonisingly close to being just the sixth running back duo of all time to rush for 1000 yards each (Gibbs finished with 945). Amon-Ra St. Brown has had an extraordinary season at receiver, bafflingly missing out on a Pro Bowl nod. He finished the season with 1515 receiving yards (the third most in the league) and will be the main threat to a Rams’ defense that is prone to giving up big plays. Do not be surprised if Amon-Ra ends up with a big touchdown similar to the 70-yarder he scored against the Vikings last week. One thing affecting the Lions’ prolific offense for this game though is the potential absence of star rookie tight end Sam Laporta. His 889 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns have been vital to this team this season and without him, Goff is lacking an important weapon. Someone will need to step up to make up for his loss.
With both teams being evenly matched on offense and on defense, the result on Sunday could come down to special teams. In this area, the Lions have the advantage. The Rams’ special teams unit has been abysmal all season, with their kicking woes being particularly damaging. The Rams have been successful with only 74.4% of their field goal attempts this season (missing 1 in 4) compared with the Lions’ successful kick rate of 90% (missing only 1 in 10). If this turns out to be a tight playoff game, the Rams’ lack of a reliable kicker could very well cost them the win. In addition to this, the Rams’ special teams has also been susceptible to giving up big plays on kick and punt returns, including the one against the Ravens in overtime that led to their only defeat of the last 8 games.
Prediction
Rams 31 Lions 24
Despite the concerns over special teams, I am going for a Rams win on Sunday. They are on an incredible run of form and the belief is high in the camp. Plus, while the Lions aim for their first postseason win since 1991, the core of this Rams outfit won the Super Bowl just two years ago and have the know-how and experience to win high pressure playoff games. I expect Stafford to have a big day, with multiple passing touchdowns, while I think Goff could struggle under pressure from Aaron Donald, Kobie Turner and Byron Young.